How does the Union State project affect Belarus’s sovereignty, and does it accelerate the country’s structural dependence on Russia? In her research, Roza Turarbekava examines integration not as an abstract political slogan, but as a gradual institutional process affecting key areas of governance — from finance and taxation to security, energy, law, and ideology.
This study was prepared within the framework of the Ideas Bank open call for external researchers. The project is funded by the European Union.
The analysis focuses on two stages of integration: the implementation of the 28 “road maps” in 2021–2023 and the second integration plan for 2024–2026. The author demonstrates that while the first stage primarily concentrated on economic and administrative convergence, the second stage expands integration into cultural, humanitarian, informational, youth, and legal spheres, increasing the risks of losing sovereign control.
The research is based on comparative analysis and the theoretical framework of historical institutionalism, allowing the author to identify not only formal political decisions, but also mechanisms of dependency, “package deals,” and asymmetries of interest between the two sides. Particular attention is paid to the distinction between independence and sovereignty, as well as to which sovereign functions Belarus has already lost and which it still retains.
A separate section examines military-political integration and its role in deepening Belarus’s dependence on Russia, including the Lukashenka regime’s involvement in the aggression against Ukraine. At the same time, the author identifies areas of limited resistance by the Belarusian regime and argues that, despite accelerating dependence, the process of sovereignty erosion remains at least partially reversible.
The study offers a comprehensive picture of how the Union State is transforming from a framework of cooperation into an instrument of absorption and militarization, creating long-term challenges for the future of Belarusian statehood.
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The views expressed in this material are the responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Ideas Bank team.
